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On the vaccination threshold for Covid-19 in French Polynesia

Abstract : High immunization rates are often sought to contain epidemics with target values typically 70% or greater. Our objective is to independently assess this value in the context of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic in French Polynesia. To this extent, we develop a graph-based epidemic model tailored to this pandemic and compute the vaccination threshold required to prevent exponential spread of the communicable disease. Our results indicate that herd immunity increases drastically when a threshold percentage of vaccinated individuals is reached. Experimental data using our idealized model indicates that the threshold value is approximately 45%. We conclude that vaccination is much more effective at preventing pandemics than usually predicted.
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https://hal-upf.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03418625
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Submitted on : Monday, November 8, 2021 - 7:45:47 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, August 30, 2022 - 7:36:25 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, February 9, 2022 - 7:45:23 PM

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Gaetan Bisson, Roger Oyono. On the vaccination threshold for Covid-19 in French Polynesia. Pacific Health, Auckland University of Technology, 2022, 5, ⟨10.24135/pacifichealth.v5i.59⟩. ⟨hal-03418625⟩

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